Misinformation and Climate Science Denial

Forms of irrational thinking such as conspiracy theory and science denial can have harmful real-world consequences. The spread of various types of misinformation, which can lead to popular false beliefs, has in fact already done meaningful damage.

Consider the threat to the planet provided by the industrial, political and ideological interests that continue a disinformation campaign to undermine public trust in climate science.

A 2022 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on climate change mitigation stated greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity continue to rise and “during 2010-2019 were higher than in any previous decade.”

The New York Times summarized the report’s mitigation findings: “Holding warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius would require nations to collectively reduce their planet-warming emissions roughly 43 percent by 2030 and to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere altogether by the early 2050s.”

Experts warn such mitigation goals must be met in order for the planet and its inhabitants to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

A 2021 survey of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change.

Yet research at Yale shows that in 2021 only 57% of American adults believed global warming is mostly caused by human activity.

An Intercept article from April 2022, “Documents Show How Polluting Industries Mobilized to Block Climate Action,” is based on the paper, “Advocating inaction: a historical analysis of the Global Climate Coalition,” published in the journal Environmental Politics.

As the article notes, the paper “reveals that the original and lasting intention” of the GCC, which “emerged in 1989 as a project of the National Association of Manufacturers, with founding members from the coal, electric utility, oil and gas, automotive, and rail sectors,” was to “push for voluntary efforts only and torpedo international momentum toward setting mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions.”

The article continues:

“Casting doubt on the science was part of that strategy from the beginning — the paper points to a 1994 communications strategy, for example, that suggested industry spokespeople downplay IPCC findings with the following talking point: ‘The IPCC reports no evidence that directly links manmade GHG emissions to changes in global average temperatures.’”

In 1949, chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers’ Public Relations Advisory Committee and vice president of Du Pont, J. Warren Kinsman, argued that “in the everlasting battle for the minds of men,” only public relations had the power to stop the “current drift toward Socialism.”

Since the 1980s, the fossil fuel industry’s public relations programs regarding climate science have included efforts to sow seeds of doubt about the science, to stall climate change mitigation policy and to delay the transition to renewable energy sources.

In the 117th Congress, 109 representatives and 30 senators are climate denialists, comprising over half of House Republicans and 60 percent of Senate Republicans. Lifetime contributions to these 139 members from the coal, oil and gas industries total more than $61 million. A 2015 study in Politics & Policy found that among the electoral positions of conservative political parties in nine democracies, the “U.S. Republican Party is an anomaly in denying anthropogenic climate change.”

Perhaps a world is possible, though, in which the implementation of science-based climate change mitigation policy programs and international agreements could avoid havoc being wreaked on civilization. The widespread denial of climate science, the spread of misinformation and deliberate campaigns of disinformation would share significant responsibility for such a future becoming an impossibility.

Conspiracy Theory and Real-World Harm

Irrational thinking is rather common, as evidenced by the popularity of unfounded conspiracy theories. A grave threat to the environment is posed by the belief that global warming is a hoax.

Other examples of harm related to belief in false theories are numerous:

* The toll of tobacco industry propaganda efforts to deny the cigarette-cancer link.

* The toll of HIV/AIDS denialism, or the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS.

* Many anecdotal stories exist of damage being done to family relationships by the cult-like QAnon movement.

* The common false belief that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate served as motive for the domestic attack on the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, which resulted in death and injury and led to an ongoing political crisis.

* It is reasonable to conclude that the spread of COVID-19 medical misinformation and vaccine misinformation has depressed the rate of vaccination and prolonged the pandemic, costing lives.

* In 2019 a man who shot and killed 51 people and injured 40 at two mosques in New Zealand posted a manifesto online on the morning of the massacre which espoused the conspiracy theories of “white genocide” and the “Great Replacement” of whites by “invaders.”

* The suspect in the May 14, 2022, mass shooting in Buffalo, NY, also posted a document online describing the same white supremacist theories and motive.

* A man died in February 2020 while attempting a “self-manned rocket launch into the upper atmosphere, during which he would decide the planet’s shape for himself.” See Kelly Weill’s Off the Edge, a history of the flat-earth movement and survey of the recent boom in conspiratorial thinking in the United States.

Irrational thinking, false belief, the spread of misinformation, conspiracy theory, science denial — these phenomena are highly destructive. They threaten individuals, relationships, institutions and the physical environment.

To promote critical reasoning in a free society, logical priorities include attending to the performance of the education and media systems. To protect liberties while attempting to counter the negative effects of widespread misinformation, rejection of authoritarian means is an obvious necessity. Methods employed by illiberal states to suppress subversive speech and thought include propaganda, censorship, surveillance and criminalization.

For further reading on how the promotion and acceptance of falsehoods and extremism has aided in the “backsliding” of nations from democracy to authoritarianism, see How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt.

Christopher Jenkins
Producer, “Audrey”
May 2022